0x222d1c77016362b2CE6eC81dC23f771945571fce-1768335175250
0x222d1c77016362b2ce6ec81dc23f771945571fce
- Realised P&L
- $-7.37
- Volume
- $200.54
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $1.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.830 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.968 | 0.926 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET · Up | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.51at 0.760US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.36at 0.733Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$0.25at 0.800Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$0.24at 0.892SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
- +$0.20at 0.820Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 18:22 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 16:08 | Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 02:50 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9679999923 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 01:27 | LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9579999866 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 15:21 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 15:16 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | SELL | 0.974 | $0.99 |
| 08-12 06:18 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $1.00 |
| 08-12 06:12 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 14:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | BUY | 0.1117006423 | $2.00 |
| 07-11 14:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $2.00 |
| 07-11 14:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 07-11 12:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 12:50 | Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? | SELL | 0.983 | $1.19 |
| 07-11 12:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET | BUY | 0.9699998332 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 12:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |