PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

LucianoAmado

0x21f4ff05cfb645c0649172b63f51deca11e9f47d

Realised P&L
$69.22
Volume
$6.2k
Markets traded
13
Open portfolio
$24.65

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
BlockerMarkets traded13
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? · Yes0.0170.013$24.65−$9.35
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026? · Yes0.1520.000$0.00−$27.61
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00−$2.46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30? · No0.0020.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$1.25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30? · No0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30? · No0.0060.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$45.57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET · Up0.3600.000$0.00−$10.00
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026? · Yes0.0930.000$0.00−$8.47

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 16:46Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ETBUY0.3599999971$10.00
10-29 16:35Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?BUY0.0259999998$3.33
10-29 16:34Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?BUY0.0059701493$1.00
10-29 16:34Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30?BUY0.002$1.00
10-29 16:34Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30?BUY0.001$1.00
10-29 16:26Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ETBUY0.16$2.80
10-29 16:24Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?BUY0.0172436344$34.00
10-29 16:21Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY0.001$1.25
10-27 03:09Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?BUY0.149999995$1.51
10-27 03:07Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?BUY0.1526043738$26.10
10-26 14:18Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?BUY0.0933528124$8.47
10-26 12:28Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.2$45.57
10-26 12:27Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.011$2.46
10-25 23:51Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.983$183.65
10-24 16:16Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.1779672965$33.25