LucianoAmado
0x21f4ff05cfb645c0649172b63f51deca11e9f47d
- Realised P&L
- $69.22
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $24.65
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.013 | $24.65 | −$9.35 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.152 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.61 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.46 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.25 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30? · No | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.57 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET · Up | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$150.41at 0.178Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$124.52at 0.028Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?
- +$14.54at 0.169Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 16:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $10.00 |
| 10-29 16:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30? | BUY | 0.0259999998 | $3.33 |
| 10-29 16:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30? | BUY | 0.0059701493 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 16:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 16:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 16:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $2.80 |
| 10-29 16:24 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0172436344 | $34.00 |
| 10-29 16:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.25 |
| 10-27 03:09 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.149999995 | $1.51 |
| 10-27 03:07 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.1526043738 | $26.10 |
| 10-26 14:18 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.0933528124 | $8.47 |
| 10-26 12:28 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.2 | $45.57 |
| 10-26 12:27 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.011 | $2.46 |
| 10-25 23:51 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $183.65 |
| 10-24 16:16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1779672965 | $33.25 |