0x21f30d58ded4652f78b77f296808cbc112cd8116
0x21f30d58ded4652f78b77f296808cbc112cd8116
- Realised P&L
- $-142.21
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $4.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31? · Yes | 0.427 | 0.298 | $4.72 | −$2.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.06at 0.850Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$17.79at 0.836Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$10.63at 0.779Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$6.33at 0.930Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$-21.28at 0.080Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 19:30 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.426999978 | $6.75 |
| 08-23 19:27 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0201455604 | $7.06 |
| 06-28 14:21 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.52 | $74.10 |
| 06-27 21:29 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? | SELL | 0.03 | $4.49 |
| 06-27 21:28 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2299999981 | $73.32 |
| 06-06 14:27 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.84 | $123.17 |
| 06-01 21:18 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? | BUY | 0.2002136226 | $30.00 |
| 05-01 11:47 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999988 | $89.83 |
| 04-19 01:48 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $28.03 |
| 04-19 01:47 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999904 | $84.11 |
| 04-19 01:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.778604408 | $37.38 |