0x21ec031a0add6cb7fa83fe47ae2b7f6d10602676
- Realised P&L
- $-14.85
- Volume
- $113.14
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $2.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.775 | $2.39 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.06at 0.667Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
- +$4.63at 0.229Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026?
- +$1.86at 0.379Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.70at 0.442Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.25at 0.590Will Apple say "Apple Pay" during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 18:32 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.7799999353 | $2.41 |
| 09-02 07:21 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 2? | BUY | 0.4299999577 | $4.88 |
| 08-25 19:05 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999604 | $2.06 |
| 08-03 23:04 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6579999943 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 14:06 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 01:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 04:15 | Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.32 |
| 07-31 20:15 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999015 | $1.31 |
| 07-31 12:14 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 04:07 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.11 |
| 07-30 03:19 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-29 06:58 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-28 18:39 | Will Apple say "Apple Pay" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.5799998886 | $1.77 |
| 07-28 07:23 | Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6899999932 | $5.04 |
| 07-27 15:50 | Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026? | BUY | 0.5999999884 | $10.37 |