0x21e6ef7548c440f23f118fc7b357471b50abc9a9
0x21e6ef7548c440f23f118fc7b357471b50abc9a9
- Realised P&L
- $4.43
- Volume
- $336.32
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $6.68
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.957 | $1.81 | +$0.81 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.835 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.510 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.385 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.620 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.375 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.65at 0.270Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$4.38at 0.329Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$3.88at 0.350US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$3.41at 0.380US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.400US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 22:52 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:28 | Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 05:06 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:33 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 04:44 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 20:25 | Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:14 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:01 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:37 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $187.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:24 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 18:23 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $192.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 10:22 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 02:14 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:28 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |