PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

CipherHex

0x21da8c49b7d879fd0c5948018b425b14375d4381

Realised P&L
$-161.04
Volume
$4.8k
Markets traded
19
Open portfolio
$52.73

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration74.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample13 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)23.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5000.725$29.00+$9.00
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.9000.685$12.14−$3.81
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.5150.443$8.59−$1.41
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.066$3.00−$2.00
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? · Yes0.3700.000$0.00−$12.00
Trump out as President by April 30? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00−$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 19:05Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.8999999605$15.95
09-12 16:24Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ETBUY0.97$1.00
09-12 16:20Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ETBUY0.5899999705$5.00
09-12 16:16Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?BUY0.4$10.00
09-12 16:13Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ETBUY0.7899999905$5.00
09-12 16:13Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.5153985097$10.00
09-12 16:102026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.5$20.00
09-12 16:09Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1099999987$5.00
04-07 17:20Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?BUY0.3699999855$12.00
04-07 17:15Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?BUY0.4199999899$10.00
04-07 17:13Trump out as President by April 30?BUY0.0190000001$10.00
09-02 14:16Will Trump say "Emergency" during his announcement on September 2?BUY0.32$3.00
09-02 14:14Will Trump say "Stroke" during his announcement on September 2?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
09-02 14:14Trump out as President in 2025?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
09-02 14:13Will Trump resign today?BUY0.007$10.00