CipherHex
0x21da8c49b7d879fd0c5948018b425b14375d4381
- Realised P&L
- $-157.04
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $54.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.500 | 0.595 | $23.80 | +$3.80 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.935 | $16.57 | +$0.62 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.515 | 0.502 | $9.75 | −$0.25 |
| Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.095 | $4.32 | −$0.68 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.81at 0.420Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
- +$3.36at 0.646Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
- +$1.26at 0.802Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
- +$-3.00at 0.320Will Trump say "Emergency" during his announcement on September 2?
- +$-10.00at 0.090Trump out as President in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 19:05 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.8999999605 | $15.95 |
| 09-12 16:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 16:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 16:16 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 16:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 16:13 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5153985097 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 16:10 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 09-12 16:09 | Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999987 | $5.00 |
| 04-07 17:20 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | BUY | 0.3699999855 | $12.00 |
| 04-07 17:15 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | BUY | 0.4199999899 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 17:13 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.0190000001 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 14:16 | Will Trump say "Emergency" during his announcement on September 2? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.00 |
| 09-02 14:14 | Will Trump say "Stroke" during his announcement on September 2? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 14:14 | Trump out as President in 2025? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 14:13 | Will Trump resign today? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.00 |