PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

CipherHex

0x21da8c49b7d879fd0c5948018b425b14375d4381

Realised P&L
$-157.04
Volume
$4.8k
Markets traded
19
Open portfolio
$54.44

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration74.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5000.595$23.80+$3.80
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.9000.935$16.57+$0.62
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.5150.502$9.75$0.25
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.095$4.32$0.68
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? · Yes0.3700.000$0.00$12.00
Trump out as President by April 30? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00$10.00
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? · Yes0.4000.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 19:05Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.8999999605$15.95
09-12 16:24Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ETBUY0.97$1.00
09-12 16:20Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ETBUY0.5899999705$5.00
09-12 16:16Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?BUY0.4$10.00
09-12 16:13Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ETBUY0.7899999905$5.00
09-12 16:13Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.5153985097$10.00
09-12 16:102026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.5$20.00
09-12 16:09Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1099999987$5.00
04-07 17:20Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?BUY0.3699999855$12.00
04-07 17:15Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?BUY0.4199999899$10.00
04-07 17:13Trump out as President by April 30?BUY0.0190000001$10.00
09-02 14:16Will Trump say "Emergency" during his announcement on September 2?BUY0.32$3.00
09-02 14:14Will Trump say "Stroke" during his announcement on September 2?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
09-02 14:14Trump out as President in 2025?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
09-02 14:13Will Trump resign today?BUY0.007$10.00