real-hero-himmel
0x21d5fa48bd651142faf37cc6cfd69a60b74d6f93
- Realised P&L
- $-319.27
- Volume
- $230.1k
- Markets traded
- 2,789
- Open portfolio
- $12.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,789
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$233.59at 0.684Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
- +$142.72at 0.545Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?
- +$113.46at 0.554Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?
- +$109.42at 0.451Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?
- +$107.14at 0.645OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 22:36 | Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.849999986 | $6.06 |
| 10-10 22:33 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5? | SELL | 0.285032022 | $6.23 |
| 10-10 06:35 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.2899999995 | $6.34 |
| 10-09 23:05 | Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.0749349916 | $8.50 |
| 10-09 23:02 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.0129755093 | $15.95 |
| 10-09 03:45 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0375978129 | $5.00 |
| 10-08 11:29 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3627875208 | $5.03 |
| 10-08 01:35 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.8210217984 | $241.05 |
| 10-08 01:15 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $10.18 |
| 10-07 14:23 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.86657 | $8.67 |
| 10-07 14:18 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.8630555556 | $31.07 |
| 10-07 13:44 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999833 | $4.42 |
| 10-07 09:05 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $5.39 |
| 10-07 08:43 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.423152842 | $6.18 |
| 10-06 13:09 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $22.80 |