0x218748df75bfb90b723a5ba9785023e476a3ebd6
- Realised P&L
- $-39.71
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $17.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
- +$2.73at 0.434Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
- +$1.70at 0.751Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?
- +$1.64at 0.757Will "Pluribus" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
- +$1.19at 0.727Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 17:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET | BUY | 0.8299999153 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 15:25 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 15:25 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 15:25 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 15:24 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 16:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 08-28 05:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 28? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 16:42 | Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in August? | SELL | 0.91 | $6.14 |
| 08-27 06:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 08-26 14:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? | BUY | 0.95 | $5.00 |
| 08-26 08:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-26 08:10 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.8699992344 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 10:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 08-25 08:54 | Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.6599998733 | $5.00 |