0x21820eD5dfB2A9ec0D13A3Ab1768c4cc9f6b897f-1771230941956
0x21820ed5dfb2a9ec0d13a3ab1768c4cc9f6b897f
- Realised P&L
- $86.40
- Volume
- $461.03
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $202.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar18.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.930 | $70.93 | +$25.93 |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.954 | $58.86 | +$8.86 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.775 | $29.25 | +$9.25 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.550 | $18.29 | +$8.29 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · No | 0.239 | 0.110 | $15.12 | −$17.77 |
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.450 | $9.78 | +$4.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.33at 0.300Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
- +$12.79at 0.610Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28?
- +$10.79at 0.597Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 20:12 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999977 | $50.00 |
| 04-05 09:57 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.3007839634 | $10.00 |
| 04-05 09:56 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.2393436062 | $32.89 |
| 02-16 10:55 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | BUY | 0.589999998 | $45.00 |
| 02-16 10:53 | Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 02-16 10:39 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999883 | $20.00 |
| 02-16 10:35 | Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? | BUY | 0.6099999927 | $20.00 |
| 02-16 10:32 | Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 02-16 10:27 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.5969999889 | $15.98 |