Pauloot
0x218040e9ba3398fcf015ea1f20dd6a3359a68882
- Realised P&L
- $113.36
- Volume
- $232.5k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $226.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? · No | 0.981 | 0.991 | $210.09 | +$2.12 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in October? · No | 0.910 | 0.982 | $15.94 | +$1.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$150.00at 0.500Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$100.00at 0.500Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18?
- +$82.07at 0.700Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in October?
- +$68.71at 0.337Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$60.50at 0.500Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 16:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $52.32 |
| 07-25 16:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $54.34 |
| 07-25 16:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $111.17 |
| 06-18 08:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 06-05 03:44 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.023 | $11.50 |
| 04-07 10:12 | Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.983 | $125.82 |
| 03-01 09:12 | Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? | BUY | 0.992 | $51.72 |
| 03-01 09:11 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? | BUY | 0.988 | $14.56 |
| 03-01 09:10 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? | SELL | 0.999 | $86.91 |
| 02-04 13:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? | BUY | 0.991 | $94.44 |
| 02-04 03:02 | Celtics vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.33 | $4.95 |
| 02-04 00:12 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? | BUY | 0.986 | $85.78 |
| 02-03 16:57 | Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | BUY | 0.32 | $45.82 |
| 02-03 16:49 | Hawks vs. Heat | BUY | 0.6 | $31.28 |
| 02-03 14:52 | Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | BUY | 0.81 | $34.75 |