954bjhyt
0x216e129e4b566bd779b1da19f353c4723b2973b7
- Realised P&L
- $-138.48
- Volume
- $28.6k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $13.45
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $10.00 | −$90.00 |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $3.45 | −$58.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.16at 0.949Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?
- +$1.50at 0.985Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?
- +$0.26at 0.988Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.17at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
- +$0.12at 0.998Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-27 10:15 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.009 | $62.08 |
| 02-27 10:14 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.987 | $61.67 |
| 02-04 06:36 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.988 | $166.86 |
| 01-28 01:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $166.70 |
| 01-28 01:10 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $166.44 |
| 01-14 00:08 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.995 | $166.95 |
| 01-07 08:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $64.00 |
| 01-07 08:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $102.00 |
| 01-04 01:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 29-January 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $119.88 |
| 12-08 07:42 | Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.9989999957 | $106.44 |
| 12-08 07:42 | Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999913 | $60.00 |
| 11-26 02:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? | BUY | 0.999 | $56.94 |
| 11-20 03:25 | Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? | BUY | 0.985 | $98.50 |