HotChili
0x216509be5332c6037105b4f871966eb97240f598
- Realised P&L
- $-49.2k
- Volume
- $206.38M
- Markets traded
- 8,294
- Open portfolio
- $147.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded8,294
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$142.7kat 0.015Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$33.6kat 0.023Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$14.8kat 0.260Marlins vs. Braves
- +$10.2kat 0.018Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$9.3kat 0.071Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:24 | Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.54 | $54.00 |
| 11-01 16:23 | Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.82 | $82.00 |
| 11-01 16:23 | Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.65 | $65.00 |
| 10-31 19:57 | FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 10-31 19:57 | FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |
| 10-31 19:57 | FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 6.5 | BUY | 0.84 | $16.80 |
| 10-31 19:57 | FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.71 | $14.20 |
| 10-31 19:30 | Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | SELL | 0.001 | $11.92 |
| 10-30 18:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | SELL | 0.14 | $4.71 |
| 10-30 18:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | BUY | 0.2974449449 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 18:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | SELL | 0.06 | $3.33 |
| 10-30 18:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 18:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | SELL | 0.07 | $4.38 |
| 10-30 18:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 18:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | BUY | 0.119999999 | $10.00 |