HotChili
0x216509be5332c6037105b4f871966eb97240f598
- Realised P&L
- $101.6k
- Volume
- $210.52M
- Markets traded
- 7,779
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded7,779
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$615.5kat 0.003Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$395.1kat 0.003No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$206.6kat 0.010Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$142.1kat 0.001Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$140.6kat 0.029Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:06 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 09-16 18:56 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.5038121003 | $10.24 |
| 09-16 18:34 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.46 | $25.30 |
| 09-16 17:56 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.53 | $57.76 |
| 09-16 17:16 | Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.50 |
| 09-16 17:16 | Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.45 |
| 09-16 17:16 | Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.67 |
| 09-16 17:15 | Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.017 | $1.75 |
| 09-16 17:15 | Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.069 | $0.38 |
| 09-16 17:14 | Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $21.15 |
| 09-16 17:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 09-15 17:01 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.43 | $43.00 |
| 09-15 17:00 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.4 | $40.00 |
| 09-15 16:59 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.36 | $16.20 |
| 09-15 16:56 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.44 | $44.00 |