MFR40
0x215f45e21e138614113f2bf0513ed574d55a9bda
- Realised P&L
- $-261.98
- Volume
- $29.5k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $0.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · No | 0.260 | 0.135 | $0.74 | −$0.68 |
| Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks · Chiba Lotte Marines | 0.320 | 0.006 | $0.09 | −$4.91 |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Taylor Fritz vs Jaume Munar · Taylor Fritz | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will US Virgin Islands win on 2026-10-04? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| UFC 332: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) · Deiveson Figueiredo | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| West Indies Tour of India ODIs: India vs West Indies · India | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 29? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| China Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Maja Chwalinska · Maja Chwalinska | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.45at 0.232Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?
- +$10.51at 0.327LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs
- +$9.98at 0.341China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa
- +$5.56at 0.477Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?
- +$5.29at 0.492Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-10-03?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 15:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 10-06 15:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.9399999887 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 14:59 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on October 6? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 14:57 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 6? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 14:15 | Ethereum Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 14:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.9480519382 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 14:05 | Solana Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 23:23 | Will US Virgin Islands win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 18:22 | Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-10-03? | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 04:23 | West Indies Tour of India ODIs: India vs West Indies | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 16:23 | UFC 332: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.149999997 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 08:23 | China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa | BUY | 0.3299999815 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 07:52 | Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 06:23 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 00:35 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves | SELL | 0.81 | $8.10 |