0x2156f236ceb5b004340348ffea7ca51247718b8a
0x2156f236ceb5b004340348ffea7ca51247718b8a
- Realised P&L
- $-1.27
- Volume
- $37.97
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $5.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.375 | $1.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.635 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.630 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.390 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.145 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.085 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.20at 0.460Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?
- +$0.86at 0.542Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?
- +$0.52at 0.660Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?
- +$0.27at 0.788Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$-1.02at 0.389Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 05:25 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:24 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 21:23 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 13:22 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 05:08 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 08:08 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 23:53 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 23:46 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 11:52 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 03:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 18:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 08:48 | Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 00:21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 16:13 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |