LONGLIFE11
0x2156db24f5ebd00f7c8b1709c51e38288d355c9f
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $177.8k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $29.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.004 | $25.26 | −$251.07 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.080 | $4.35 | −$0.54 |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? · Yes | 0.136 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.949Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$653.00at 0.508Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
- +$369.49at 0.740Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
- +$283.58at 0.721Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$277.09at 0.289Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 17:08 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999838 | $4.89 |
| 07-27 06:56 | Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0492328481 | $276.33 |
| 07-02 01:33 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.021 | $126.00 |
| 07-01 16:44 | England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6899999997 | $128.00 |
| 06-29 09:42 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.009 | $81.00 |
| 06-25 02:25 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3041538462 | $21.75 |
| 06-17 09:42 | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY | 0.1392166937 | $1.4k |
| 06-04 13:36 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.01 | $90.00 |
| 06-04 13:33 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.012 | $72.00 |
| 06-02 13:30 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.27 | $19.30 |
| 06-01 17:01 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $188.28 |
| 06-01 13:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2687148838 | $50.80 |
| 06-01 13:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $53.14 |
| 06-01 12:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8089999982 | $58.89 |
| 05-24 07:09 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.12 | $59.40 |