0xlongtermer
0x2154b32b4ad93de305691465e20239696e6c9ba8
- Realised P&L
- $1.71
- Volume
- $728.47
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $6.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.720 | $6.14 | +$1.11 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET · Up | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.76at 0.574Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- +$3.77at 0.590Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
- +$3.14at 0.560Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$2.75at 0.452Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
- +$2.47at 0.672Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 14:11 | Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5738771815 | $15.84 |
| 10-25 14:10 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.93 | $5.05 |
| 10-25 14:10 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.59 | $3.83 |
| 10-25 14:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.70 |
| 10-25 14:07 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.01 |
| 09-06 23:17 | Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5899999543 | $5.03 |
| 09-06 23:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $5.11 |
| 09-06 23:14 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.709999866 | $4.45 |
| 09-06 23:13 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.00 |
| 08-30 17:47 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2699999655 | $3.76 |
| 08-30 17:46 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 08-30 17:45 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9199999043 | $5.00 |
| 08-30 17:44 | Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6635513808 | $5.00 |
| 08-30 17:43 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.7699998691 | $5.00 |
| 08-30 17:41 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $6.15 |