Marcosinus
0x21303c6cebf12f1e4392cc113d06be34c728b64d
- Realised P&L
- $-6.2k
- Volume
- $89.2k
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $593.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? · No | 0.800 | 0.982 | $326.70 | +$60.41 |
| NL: ZSC Lions vs. Davos · ZSC Lions | 0.563 | 0.640 | $73.60 | +$8.80 |
| NL: Geneve-Servette vs. Lugano · Geneve-Servette | 0.459 | 0.510 | $54.58 | +$5.50 |
| Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.964 | $48.20 | +$7.70 |
| Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? · Yes | 0.558 | 0.840 | $42.00 | +$14.10 |
| Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2? · Yes | 0.325 | 0.200 | $38.41 | −$23.96 |
| Will Belgium win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? · No | 0.650 | 0.960 | $9.60 | +$3.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$374.70at 0.538Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
- +$266.99at 0.823Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?
- +$221.84at 0.699Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?
- +$220.66at 0.550Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?
- +$211.01at 0.217Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 05:24 | NL: ZSC Lions vs. Davos | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 10-18 05:24 | NL: Geneve-Servette vs. Lugano | BUY | 0.46 | $10.81 |
| 10-18 05:23 | NL: ZSC Lions vs. Davos | BUY | 0.5636363636 | $62.00 |
| 10-18 05:20 | NL: Geneve-Servette vs. Lugano | BUY | 0.46 | $31.51 |
| 10-18 05:20 | NL: Geneve-Servette vs. Lugano | BUY | 0.45 | $6.75 |
| 10-11 19:24 | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.8 | $266.29 |
| 10-01 20:38 | Will Germany win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2? | BUY | 0.3247924803 | $62.37 |
| 10-01 20:14 | Will Portugal win 2026-27 Nations League Group A4? | BUY | 0.81 | $40.50 |
| 09-26 20:42 | Will Belgium win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 09-26 20:41 | Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 09-26 20:41 | Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? | BUY | 0.55 | $22.00 |
| 09-26 13:27 | Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.9879172374 | $1.3k |
| 06-14 10:15 | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.96 | $83.01 |
| 06-14 10:15 | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.96 | $43.63 |
| 06-14 10:15 | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.96 | $239.99 |