AaronCA
0x2128f011fb563a8ff6c484ba80eb049356c1f203
- Realised P&L
- $16.5k
- Volume
- $175.1k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $18.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.288Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
- +$477.21at 0.390Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
- +$319.59at 0.197Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
- +$316.86at 0.084Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July?
- +$285.41at 0.465Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 01:39 | Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.061546161 | $38.65 |
| 08-02 21:57 | Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + UDMR? | SELL | 0.8650275117 | $309.71 |
| 08-02 19:28 | Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election? | BUY | 0.3326 | $49.89 |
| 08-02 15:09 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.3226514431 | $1.0k |
| 08-01 00:20 | Exact Score: MFK Ružomberok 3 - 3 FK Železiarne Podbrezová? | BUY | 0.8 | $9.60 |
| 08-01 00:19 | Exact Score: MFK Ružomberok 3 - 3 FK Železiarne Podbrezová? | BUY | 0.8 | $32.00 |
| 08-01 00:18 | Exact Score: MFK Ružomberok 3 - 3 FK Železiarne Podbrezová? | BUY | 0.8 | $53.60 |
| 08-01 00:18 | Exact Score: MFK Ružomberok 3 - 3 FK Železiarne Podbrezová? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 00:18 | Exact Score: MFK Ružomberok 3 - 3 FK Železiarne Podbrezová? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 00:18 | Exact Score: MFK Ružomberok 3 - 3 FK Železiarne Podbrezová? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 08-01 00:16 | Exact Score: MFK Ružomberok 3 - 3 FK Železiarne Podbrezová? | BUY | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 07-31 23:51 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in July? | BUY | 0.56 | $428.86 |
| 07-31 23:06 | Will there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026? | SELL | 0.3595938969 | $372.61 |
| 07-31 22:43 | Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | BUY | 0.0841511514 | $133.56 |
| 07-31 22:39 | Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | BUY | 0.1038011213 | $860.52 |