rainbowlilies
0x21064fd320bfd5a86f8c92a94d3209edf4154dea
- Realised P&L
- $756.6k
- Volume
- $76.70M
- Markets traded
- 9,390
- Open portfolio
- $74.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded9,390
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.4kat 0.410Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$104.4kat 0.418Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$75.9kat 0.409Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$51.3kat 0.064Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- +$40.9kat 0.031Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 15:15 | Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.886 | $88.60 |
| 09-16 15:09 | Will Rodri be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | SELL | 0.011 | $7.92 |
| 09-15 23:50 | Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0421993064 | $10.59 |
| 09-15 23:11 | Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3298084654 | $167.37 |
| 09-15 23:08 | Will Mike Trout win the 2026 American League MVP Award? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.00 |
| 09-15 23:08 | Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-15 23:08 | Will Gunnar Henderson win the 2026 American League MVP Award? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 09-15 23:08 | Will Dillon Dingler win the 2026 American League MVP Award? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 09-15 19:24 | Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election? | BUY | 0.23 | $5.99 |
| 09-15 19:10 | Will Aaron Orlando win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election? | BUY | 0.18 | $41.72 |
| 09-15 19:04 | Will Alexander Shuvaev win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections? | BUY | 0.037 | $3.58 |
| 09-15 19:01 | Will Poland win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.13 |
| 09-15 19:00 | Will Georgia win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 09-15 19:00 | Will England win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.19 |
| 09-15 18:26 | Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.72 |