rainbowlilies
0x21064fd320bfd5a86f8c92a94d3209edf4154dea
- Realised P&L
- $169.6k
- Volume
- $86.14M
- Markets traded
- 10,047
- Open portfolio
- $60.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10,047
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.3kat 0.012Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$32.1kat 0.144Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$31.0kat 0.137Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$27.8kat 0.000Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$21.0kat 0.000Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:21 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.9680298286 | $677.62 |
| 11-01 20:57 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.962 | $2.9k |
| 11-01 20:31 | Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 11-01 20:29 | Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 20:29 | Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.23 |
| 11-01 08:12 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $690.00 |
| 11-01 07:51 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.9454430143 | $1.3k |
| 11-01 05:43 | Joe Alwyn announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 10-31 20:24 | Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0019915279 | $0.61 |
| 10-30 17:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30? | SELL | 0.007 | $2.10 |
| 10-30 00:34 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $7.73 |
| 10-29 20:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.6384225 | $2.6k |
| 10-29 20:16 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $182.91 |
| 10-29 20:01 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $120.76 |
| 10-29 19:28 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.09 |