avramenkoandy
0x2061c980c3332de71ea77bc34bcc12d558e39160
- Realised P&L
- $19.26
- Volume
- $5.3k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $84.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.948 | 0.947 | $29.34 | −$0.05 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-03 House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.945 | $29.30 | +$0.15 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.955 | $23.88 | −$0.23 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.055 | $1.18 | −$1.82 |
| Will Colleen Hardwick win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.004 | $1.02 | −$6.07 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · No | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.04 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.17 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.349 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.51at 0.440Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$41.71at 0.210Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$35.78at 0.704Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$15.05at 0.210Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025?
- +$14.26at 0.736Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 16:35 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $24.10 |
| 09-10 16:35 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.94 | $29.14 |
| 09-10 16:35 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.948 | $29.39 |
| 09-01 16:18 | Will Colleen Hardwick win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | BUY | 0.0278866142 | $7.08 |
| 08-08 06:08 | Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | SELL | 0.28 | $16.80 |
| 08-08 06:07 | Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.72 | $20.88 |
| 08-03 07:22 | Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.74 | $14.24 |
| 08-03 07:21 | Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.75 | $8.06 |
| 07-26 18:16 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.347176 | $52.08 |
| 07-19 15:55 | Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.072 | $6.98 |
| 07-17 19:03 | Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.2078152381 | $43.64 |
| 07-17 18:24 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.78 | $43.68 |
| 07-16 17:10 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.33 | $27.72 |
| 07-16 17:10 | Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.28 | $27.16 |
| 07-13 15:34 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.88 | $49.28 |