capib
0x204b382df532a8106768ccceaf699a89c4ed8ca3
- Realised P&L
- $11.1k
- Volume
- $2.34M
- Markets traded
- 3,681
- Open portfolio
- $9.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,681
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.095Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.322Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.222Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.302Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.420Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 08:00 | Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.6 | $45.00 |
| 09-17 07:18 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on September 17? | SELL | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 09-17 07:13 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on September 17? | SELL | 0.7 | $94.50 |
| 09-17 06:30 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on September 17? | SELL | 0.73 | $36.50 |
| 09-17 03:18 | Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.59 | $17.70 |
| 09-17 00:04 | Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.51 | $28.05 |
| 09-17 00:00 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $181 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $19.32 |
| 09-16 23:48 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $181 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $40.50 |
| 09-16 23:34 | Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 09-16 23:31 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.49 | $26.95 |
| 09-16 20:52 | Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on September 16? | SELL | 0.01 | $2.80 |
| 09-16 20:44 | Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on September 16? | SELL | 0.01 | $2.98 |
| 09-16 18:51 | Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on September 16? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.12 |
| 09-16 18:44 | Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on September 16? | SELL | 0.88 | $264.00 |
| 09-16 18:15 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 16? | SELL | 0.71 | $142.00 |