larson198
0x2049d49b5e1305a92e83ffe978950056bc202e4d
- Realised P&L
- $-12.17
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 131
- Open portfolio
- $13.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded131
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.30at 0.870Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET
- +$13.00at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
- +$13.00at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
- +$6.32at 0.579Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 5?
- +$5.60at 0.627Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 2PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 19:39 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 9? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 10-08 14:00 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.52 |
| 10-04 10:01 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 10-04 10:01 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.60 |
| 10-04 09:56 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 10-04 09:56 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.55 |
| 10-04 09:42 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 10-04 09:42 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.55 |
| 10-04 07:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 4? | BUY | 0.065 | $1.02 |
| 10-03 13:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 9AM ET | SELL | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 10-03 13:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 9AM ET | BUY | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 10-03 12:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8AM ET | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 10-03 10:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6AM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 10-03 09:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5AM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 10-03 07:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |