PolyBot

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Traders

kickstandhater

0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414

Realised P&L
$82.8k
Volume
$6.71M
Markets traded
524
Open portfolio
$9.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded524
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration10.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.5800.105$5.4k$24.4k
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No0.8110.950$3.9k+$575.49
Will France win on 2026-06-16? · No0.5000.000$0.00$25.00
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00$336.24
Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC by August 31? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$154.84
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? · Yes0.6480.000$0.00$9.8k
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No0.6600.000$0.00$4.0k
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00$75.85
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. Natus Vincere · Natus Vincere0.2900.000$0.00$57.10
Will Natus Vincere win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$67.18
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? · No0.3830.000$0.00$3.0k
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · No0.8470.000$0.00$8.5k
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00$160.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-16 19:45Will France win on 2026-06-16?BUY0.5$25.00
06-03 15:04MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.996$82.2k
04-07 22:14US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.992$43.7k
04-07 16:14Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?BUY0.8096982759$2.3k
04-03 13:08US forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL0.21$420.00
04-03 08:51Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?BUY0.24$126.24
03-31 12:20Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?BUY0.99$22.7k
03-31 12:19Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?BUY0.9888067902$3.9k
03-30 10:44Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?BUY0.81$899.72
03-29 11:49Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?BUY0.75$825.00
03-29 11:48Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?BUY0.88$2.1k
03-29 11:41US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.93$3.7k
03-27 10:24Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?BUY0.88$562.32
03-27 10:14Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?BUY0.8761458805$638.79
03-26 09:55Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY0.68$1.0k