kickstandhater
0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414
- Realised P&L
- $82.8k
- Volume
- $6.71M
- Markets traded
- 524
- Open portfolio
- $9.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded524
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.7kat 0.614Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$18.3kat 0.406[Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$15.6kat 0.431EigenLayer airdrop by June 30?
- +$9.8kat 0.659Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$7.6kat 0.566Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 19:45 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.5 | $25.00 |
| 06-03 15:04 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $82.2k |
| 04-07 22:14 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.992 | $43.7k |
| 04-07 16:14 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.8096982759 | $2.3k |
| 04-03 13:08 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.21 | $420.00 |
| 04-03 08:51 | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $126.24 |
| 03-31 12:20 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | BUY | 0.99 | $22.7k |
| 03-31 12:19 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | BUY | 0.9888067902 | $3.9k |
| 03-30 10:44 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | BUY | 0.81 | $899.72 |
| 03-29 11:49 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | BUY | 0.75 | $825.00 |
| 03-29 11:48 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.1k |
| 03-29 11:41 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.7k |
| 03-27 10:24 | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $562.32 |
| 03-27 10:14 | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | BUY | 0.8761458805 | $638.79 |
| 03-26 09:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.68 | $1.0k |