0x1fbd5a5fca635e7a223d5d27befb1644e69cbbdb
0x1fbd5a5fca635e7a223d5d27befb1644e69cbbdb
- Realised P&L
- $87.83
- Volume
- $842.63
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $41.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.545 | $32.88 | +$1.51 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.987 | $5.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.421 | 0.548 | $2.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.030 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.009 | $0.16 | −$4.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.24at 0.021Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$55.79at 0.152Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-2.06at 0.196Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5
- +$-2.06at 0.340Will MrBeast say "Briefcase" or "Suitcase" during his next YouTube video?
- +$-4.12at 0.201Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 21:30 | Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | BUY | 0.299999999 | $29.27 |
| 09-28 21:24 | Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.519999992 | $31.37 |
| 09-28 21:07 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.4209999844 | $2.00 |
| 09-27 22:02 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0369999987 | $1.00 |
| 07-03 14:04 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.1899999373 | $2.00 |
| 07-03 13:58 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1949999656 | $4.00 |
| 06-29 17:05 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 17:04 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 05-27 20:35 | Will MrBeast say "Briefcase" or "Suitcase" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 05-23 22:28 | Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 03-06 12:00 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9629999994 | $5.00 |
| 03-06 12:00 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0210000003 | $2.00 |
| 03-06 11:59 | Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.0179999965 | $5.00 |
| 03-06 11:58 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 03-06 11:57 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1519999865 | $9.00 |