0x1F99C34BBb81E9fe977750d10a31432E3B4285c8-1771688892522
0x1f99c34bbb81e9fe977750d10a31432e3b4285c8
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $68.1k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $584.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)9.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.033 | $327.21 | −$576.95 |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.065 | $257.05 | −$645.49 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.346 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.99 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.384 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$600.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.135 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.4kat 0.110US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$-0.11at 0.300Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$-3.43at 0.466Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
- +$-6.72at 0.727Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
- +$-18.34at 0.178Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 16:00 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.3499999997 | $500.00 |
| 05-04 15:59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | BUY | 0.4699999999 | $1000.00 |
| 04-03 14:30 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0930679501 | $500.00 |
| 04-03 13:25 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.087 | $29.60 |
| 04-03 05:34 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.086 | $62.24 |
| 04-03 05:31 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.086 | $43.00 |
| 03-28 18:55 | Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.2732789581 | $100.00 |
| 03-26 04:49 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | SELL | 0.0866371358 | $273.57 |
| 03-26 04:49 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | SELL | 0.1616305497 | $181.66 |
| 03-26 04:49 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | SELL | 0.2998411634 | $199.89 |
| 03-26 04:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | BUY | 0.0950086707 | $300.00 |
| 03-26 04:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | BUY | 0.1779448222 | $200.00 |
| 03-26 04:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | BUY | 0.2999999992 | $200.00 |
| 03-26 04:44 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? | SELL | 0.6321229077 | $402.19 |
| 03-26 04:44 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | SELL | 0.3136028507 | $160.61 |