francisco18
0x1effe888a6f14bc3026b44cbb845f6a451b40f55
- Realised P&L
- $18.65
- Volume
- $12.1k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $13.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.185 | $7.40 | −$19.80 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.225 | $6.52 | −$11.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.10at 0.490Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?
- +$30.80at 0.290Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14?
- +$18.90at 0.640Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$11.31at 0.725Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?
- +$5.24at 0.580Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:53 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999823 | $10.80 |
| 01-30 16:23 | Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999298 | $5.15 |
| 01-30 13:13 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999996 | $12.82 |
| 01-30 12:31 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.40 |
| 01-30 12:23 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $36.25 |
| 12-30 12:42 | Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979996828 | $1.85 |
| 12-30 11:42 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.57 |
| 12-30 08:58 | Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.73 |
| 12-29 21:37 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.84 |
| 12-29 20:53 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $45.93 |
| 10-30 22:30 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.74 |
| 10-30 21:19 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.50 |
| 09-29 09:54 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.93 |
| 09-28 21:17 | Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999207 | $11.75 |
| 09-28 20:20 | Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $14.25 |