EveningAstro
0x1efdf2f4b1639ab8aea60dfc4478a841ff3883ab
- Realised P&L
- $-98.84
- Volume
- $125.0k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $604.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.914 | 0.911 | $452.25 | −$1.13 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.921 | 0.912 | $72.07 | −$0.69 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.070 | 0.075 | $35.62 | +$2.37 |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.072 | $26.38 | −$1.96 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.029 | $11.54 | −$0.57 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.038 | $6.40 | +$0.08 |
| Raptors vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Raptors vs. Wizards · Raptors | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Rockets vs. Kings · Rockets | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Heat vs. Timberwolves · Heat | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Heat vs. Pistons · Pistons | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.00 |
| Pistons vs. Lakers · Lakers | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$260.00 |
| Pelicans vs. Heat · Pelicans | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Wizards vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.00 |
| 76ers vs. Mavericks · Mavericks | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.2kat 0.084Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$5.5kat 0.018Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$1.9kat 0.087Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$414.75at 0.247Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
- +$398.46at 0.260Spurs vs. Thunder
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 13:55 | Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.984 | $491.59 |
| 09-18 09:56 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $40.25 |
| 01-07 11:48 | Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | BUY | 0.7 | $120.00 |
| 01-07 11:47 | Suns vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.64 | $120.00 |
| 01-07 11:46 | Pelicans vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.8 | $100.00 |
| 01-07 11:45 | Clippers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $100.00 |
| 01-07 11:44 | Bulls vs. Pistons | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $100.00 |
| 01-07 11:43 | Wizards vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.8299999993 | $100.00 |
| 01-07 11:42 | Nuggets vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.25 | $120.00 |
| 01-06 14:37 | Mavericks vs. Kings | BUY | 0.6599999989 | $200.00 |
| 01-06 14:36 | Heat vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.32 | $200.00 |
| 01-06 14:35 | Magic vs. Wizards | BUY | 0.72 | $180.00 |
| 01-06 14:34 | Cavaliers vs. Pacers | BUY | 0.6699999998 | $180.00 |
| 01-05 17:03 | Nuggets vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.8299999999 | $140.00 |
| 01-05 17:02 | Suns vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.7399999995 | $160.00 |