0x1ed64e13da4e9e91ab95af0afbeee57bd8177e66
- Realised P&L
- $-9.21
- Volume
- $377.42
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $1.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.350 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.090 | $0.45 | −$3.20 |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.034 | $0.17 | −$2.08 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.110 | $0.15 | −$0.84 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.01at 0.993Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?
- +$0.01at 0.995Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October?
- +$0.00at 0.999Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$-0.01at 0.999Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?
- +$-0.01at 0.997Weed rescheduled in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-14 10:34 | Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5699994984 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 10:33 | Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 01-07 08:16 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 12-29 13:11 | Weed rescheduled in 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $8.98 |
| 12-29 13:11 | Weed rescheduled in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999158 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:10 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | SELL | 0.998 | $8.98 |
| 12-29 13:07 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:06 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | SELL | 0.994 | $8.99 |
| 12-29 13:05 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | BUY | 0.9949999033 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:04 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $8.98 |
| 12-29 13:02 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999158 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:01 | Modi out in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $8.98 |
| 12-29 12:59 | Modi out in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 12:59 | Trump out as President in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $9.98 |
| 12-29 12:57 | Trump out as President in 2025? | BUY | 0.9990000009 | $10.00 |