Fercrypto
0x1eb34da4d76c681ac0a94c2df54ab29cabf3ead1
- Realised P&L
- $533.71
- Volume
- $46.0k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $466.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.992 | $198.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.982 | $104.81 | +$2.72 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.165 | $96.32 | −$122.41 |
| Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.213 | 0.055 | $43.13 | −$124.03 |
| Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.055 | $24.10 | −$41.62 |
| Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.60 |
| Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$837.12at 0.407Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$205.70at 0.538Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$29.20at 0.033Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$17.33at 0.508GTA 6 launch postponed again?
- +$8.47at 0.943US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 20:03 | Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.15 | $40.58 |
| 09-03 14:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $191.00 |
| 07-05 08:43 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.125 | $87.50 |
| 06-30 23:48 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.005 | $25.00 |
| 06-22 16:08 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.006 | $60.00 |
| 06-22 16:02 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.139 | $41.70 |
| 06-15 12:49 | Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $5.40 |
| 06-14 16:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $34.00 |
| 06-14 16:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 06-14 16:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 06-14 16:35 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.049 | $98.00 |
| 04-14 17:30 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $6.75 |
| 04-14 17:29 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $67.50 |
| 04-11 21:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.34 | $71.40 |
| 03-14 12:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.32 | $48.00 |