Lucjano
0x1ea18e908aea6df78952274354c22024bbc017c1
- Realised P&L
- $-365.14
- Volume
- $34.4k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $29.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.004 | $22.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.306 | 0.155 | $7.13 | −$6.95 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$83.49at 0.438Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$37.77at 0.305Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$29.40at 0.220Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$5.00at 0.160Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$1.00at 0.140Polish snap election called in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-18 15:33 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $4.60 |
| 04-29 21:46 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 08:07 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 04-24 12:24 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.44 |
| 04-24 12:24 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 04-23 20:34 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $2.50 |
| 04-16 10:17 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.49 |
| 04-15 06:58 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.36 |
| 11-24 13:59 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $21.00 |
| 07-30 17:22 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.64 | $19.20 |
| 07-30 17:21 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.64 | $25.60 |
| 06-29 20:44 | Will India invade Pakistan before July? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.00 |
| 06-02 06:15 | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | SELL | 0.998 | $59.88 |
| 06-01 22:18 | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | SELL | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 06-01 22:17 | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | SELL | 0.922 | $9.22 |