tolledo
0x1e66abb6c966fa1ffbedec7af06190cbcf9441e7
- Realised P&L
- $77.38
- Volume
- $4.15M
- Markets traded
- 3,749
- Open portfolio
- $7.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,749
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.014 | $4.76 | +$2.38 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.009 | $1.40 | −$1.11 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.006 | $1.04 | −$1.53 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.004 | $0.51 | −$0.66 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.007 | $0.03 | −$0.04 |
| Will Pablo Marçal finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.003 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.004 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.41 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15? · No | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.29 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? · No | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.54at 0.010Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
- +$67.42at 0.001Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in February?
- +$54.03at 0.013Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
- +$30.42at 0.001Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?
- +$28.21at 0.020Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 19:15 | Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.04 |
| 08-09 15:03 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.54 |
| 08-09 04:04 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.017 | $2.71 |
| 08-04 19:49 | No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.08 |
| 08-04 15:08 | Will Fred M'membe win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.29 |
| 08-04 10:52 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.42 |
| 08-04 06:58 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.53 |
| 07-30 20:22 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $1.68 |
| 07-30 19:52 | Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | SELL | 0.015 | $2.32 |
| 07-30 18:42 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.012 | $2.52 |
| 07-30 00:02 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.017 | $2.79 |
| 07-16 04:26 | Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.25 |
| 07-16 02:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July? | SELL | 0.007 | $1.79 |
| 07-15 21:34 | Trump signs housing bill by end of July? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.30 |
| 07-15 20:06 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.76 |