throat-goat
0x1e34fd6aa3b46e4f4d6b97a1491b726291adb86f
- Realised P&L
- $-3.9k
- Volume
- $1.12M
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $11.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.135 | $2.7k | +$100.00 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.935 | 0.961 | $2.3k | +$61.20 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.675 | $2.2k | +$176.00 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.915 | $1.9k | +$10.50 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.891 | 0.887 | $1.8k | −$7.00 |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.475 | $57.00 | +$5.40 |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.145 | $43.50 | −$109.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.070Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$1.2kat 0.084Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$664.23at 0.152Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$615.12at 0.148Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$569.61at 0.146Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 01:45 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2799999916 | $20.00 |
| 07-03 22:54 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.0089999996 | $20.00 |
| 07-02 17:17 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.0428820723 | $20.00 |
| 06-24 17:08 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.6199999999 | $100.00 |
| 06-23 21:22 | Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3699999926 | $30.00 |
| 06-23 18:16 | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.839999999 | $100.00 |
| 06-23 18:15 | Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.1299999979 | $50.00 |
| 06-23 17:17 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.073445 | $38.93 |
| 06-22 23:18 | Will France win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.94 | $400.00 |
| 06-22 17:51 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.8199999999 | $500.00 |
| 06-21 04:03 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.6599999946 | $110.00 |
| 06-19 16:08 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.5899999991 | $100.00 |
| 06-16 21:20 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.48 | $161.54 |
| 06-07 19:31 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $100.00 |
| 06-07 03:27 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999974 | $25.00 |