0x1e2f638c7352b1f8f4ef28dd6637552e2c3939f3
0x1e2f638c7352b1f8f4ef28dd6637552e2c3939f3
- Realised P&L
- $-3.92
- Volume
- $160.58
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $2.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.465 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2? · Up | 0.790 | 0.765 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.00at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$1.84at 0.420S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$1.76at 0.430Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA?
- +$1.65at 0.440US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
- +$1.56at 0.460Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 04:01 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 19:55 | Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 13:18 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 15:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:11 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:48 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 23:26 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:05 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:02 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:54 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:42 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 10:17 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:14 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 16:32 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |