Paukan
0x1e21dda86b9da29dd61d226f29dd970abf3c9e58
- Realised P&L
- $507.46
- Volume
- $59.7k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? · No | 0.717 | 1.000 | $697.08 | +$197.08 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? · Yes | 0.294 | 0.115 | $234.62 | −$365.38 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.080 | $181.82 | −$318.18 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.280Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
- +$1.3kat 0.440Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
- +$1.2kat 0.541Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
- +$583.45at 0.340Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August?
- +$215.39at 0.650Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 16:00 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.3266767501 | $200.00 |
| 05-09 17:39 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 04-22 18:36 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.280121283 | $400.00 |
| 04-12 05:42 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999999 | $2.4k |
| 02-28 07:15 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $4.45 |
| 02-24 17:23 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999996 | $200.12 |
| 01-22 15:08 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? | BUY | 0.2199999997 | $500.00 |
| 01-16 12:20 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | BUY | 0.2801366677 | $500.00 |
| 01-08 19:15 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? | BUY | 0.717274643 | $500.00 |
| 01-01 14:05 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | BUY | 0.4399198093 | $1000.00 |
| 11-22 21:12 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.5733765811 | $798.40 |
| 09-13 20:43 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.50690136 | $662.86 |
| 09-13 20:40 | Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? | SELL | 0.4061082452 | $662.86 |
| 09-12 13:03 | Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? | BUY | 0.4499999997 | $734.50 |
| 09-12 12:57 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | SELL | 0.1494090673 | $379.91 |