ConfusedUngaBunga
0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee
- Realised P&L
- $9.7k
- Volume
- $2.51M
- Markets traded
- 5,419
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,419
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Degerfors IF be runner-up in the 2026 Allsvenskan (Sweden)? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.410 | $223.86 | +$218.40 |
| Will Ding Liren finish in the Top 3 of Titled Tuesday on September 22? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.495 | $198.50 | +$194.49 |
| Will Brandon Jacobson finish in the Top 8 of Titled Tuesday on September 22? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.445 | $178.44 | +$174.44 |
| Will Tuomas Turunen finish in the Top 8 of Titled Tuesday on September 22? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.445 | $178.44 | +$174.44 |
| Spread: Rochdale AFC (-4.5) · Rochdale AFC | 0.010 | 0.490 | $140.63 | +$137.76 |
| Spread: Rochdale AFC (-5.5) · Rochdale AFC | 0.010 | 0.490 | $140.63 | +$137.76 |
| Spread: Sheffield United FC (-4.5) · Sheffield United FC | 0.010 | 0.485 | $139.68 | +$136.80 |
| Spread: Stoke City FC (-5.5) · Stoke City FC | 0.010 | 0.485 | $139.68 | +$136.80 |
| Spread: Sheffield United FC (-5.5) · Sheffield United FC | 0.010 | 0.485 | $139.68 | +$136.80 |
| Spread: Hartlepool United FC (-5.5) · Hartlepool United FC | 0.010 | 0.480 | $136.80 | +$133.95 |
| Spread: Worthing FC (-4.5) · Worthing FC | 0.010 | 0.480 | $136.80 | +$133.95 |
| Spread: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-4.5) · Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | 0.010 | 0.465 | $134.85 | +$131.95 |
| Spread: Tajikistan (-5.5) · Tajikistan | 0.010 | 0.460 | $133.86 | +$130.95 |
| Spread: Tajikistan (-4.5) · Tajikistan | 0.010 | 0.460 | $133.86 | +$130.95 |
| Spread: Stoke City FC (-4.5) · Stoke City FC | 0.010 | 0.460 | $132.48 | +$129.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.010Blockx vs. Engel: Total Sets O/U 2.5
- +$680.20at 0.010Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on December 27?
- +$605.54at 0.001Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09?
- +$510.72at 0.010Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
- +$460.67at 0.010Will "Super Troopers 3" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:11 | Will the earnings call not air? | SELL | 0.0306 | $3.82 |
| 09-17 15:23 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.04 |
| 09-16 12:47 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 09-12 04:10 | Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.39 |
| 09-09 19:21 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on September 11? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.30 |
| 09-09 18:34 | LAPTOP FDV above $5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.012 | $2.46 |
| 09-09 16:44 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $224 in September? | BUY | 0.01 | $4.36 |
| 09-08 00:27 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on September 9? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.48 |
| 09-07 22:49 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $73 Week of September 7 2026? | SELL | 0.067 | $1.64 |
| 09-07 05:16 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 7 2026? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.32 |
| 09-07 04:04 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 7 2026? | SELL | 0.044 | $7.48 |
| 09-06 21:55 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of September 7 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $17.70 |
| 09-06 08:42 | Will Sonya Kilkenny be the next Premier of Victoria? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.21 |
| 09-06 04:53 | Will Hong Kong have 550mm or more of precipitation in September? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.29 |
| 09-05 05:21 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in September? | SELL | 0.24 | $2.40 |