0x1e069d11bba3b9ea1c635c91f48788e8327950be
- Realised P&L
- $10.15
- Volume
- $144.00
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $78.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.966 | $48.30 | +$23.30 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.685 | $22.61 | +$15.02 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? · No | 0.590 | 0.655 | $5.24 | +$0.52 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.034 | $1.70 | −$23.30 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.043 | $0.70 | −$0.33 |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.40at 0.320Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$0.01at 0.863Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- +$-2.15at 0.500Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 19:37 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.02 |
| 06-09 19:58 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.863 | $5.18 |
| 03-28 14:24 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.59 | $4.72 |
| 03-26 14:02 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | BUY | 0.23 | $7.59 |
| 03-16 22:02 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |