RubenPearson3367
0x1dfd4d823a8811fd6326e1e6ba5261973554946b
- Realised P&L
- $251.15
- Volume
- $329.7k
- Markets traded
- 504
- Open portfolio
- $28.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded504
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET? · No | 0.600 | 0.993 | $12.91 | +$5.11 |
| Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.040 | $9.01 | −$27.47 |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.900 | 1.000 | $4.00 | +$0.40 |
| Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? · No | 0.440 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.56 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? · No | 0.610 | 0.959 | $0.96 | +$0.35 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.275 | $0.28 | −$0.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$733.20at 0.220Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?
- +$636.32at 0.120Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
- +$570.04at 0.110Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$547.00at 0.390Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
- +$358.20at 0.130Celonis IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 09:48 | Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | SELL | 0.61 | $506.91 |
| 04-13 05:51 | Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | BUY | 0.61 | $523.99 |
| 04-13 04:35 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $401.60 |
| 04-13 04:34 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $368.80 |
| 04-13 04:01 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.798 | $142.04 |
| 04-13 03:55 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.798 | $304.84 |
| 04-10 19:21 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.859 | $481.04 |
| 04-09 13:06 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $25.28 |
| 04-09 11:22 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000? | SELL | 0.36 | $21.60 |
| 04-08 22:15 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000? | BUY | 0.42 | $25.20 |
| 04-08 21:56 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $25.28 |
| 04-08 21:22 | Spread: Ceará SC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $521.00 |
| 04-08 05:55 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $808.92 |
| 04-08 01:39 | AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Grand Rapids Griffins | BUY | 0.619 | $391.83 |
| 03-31 02:18 | Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April? | SELL | 0.72 | $228.96 |