Alexiadfb
0x1dfa62d5e38a024629dceafa58233a686ebc25f4
- Realised P&L
- $-24.54
- Volume
- $29.6k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $117.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Knicks (-14.5) · Knicks | 0.510 | 0.505 | $117.67 | −$1.16 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15? · No | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.45 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.42 |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-10-31? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.82 |
| Will Cesena FC win on 2026-05-08? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.44 |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs K27 (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A · B8 | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$88.80 |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs · MIBR | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.00 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.28 |
| Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$561.74at 0.500Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$378.48at 0.500Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga?
- +$303.17at 0.500Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
- +$301.61at 0.500Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$301.38at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 07:33 | Spread: Knicks (-14.5) | BUY | 0.51 | $118.83 |
| 10-31 09:37 | Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-10-31? | BUY | 0.57 | $14.82 |
| 10-31 07:56 | Will Porto win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $461.54 |
| 10-31 07:56 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.91 |
| 10-31 07:56 | Will Porto win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $462.00 |
| 10-31 07:55 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more? | SELL | 0.997 | $453.63 |
| 10-31 07:55 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.43 |
| 10-31 07:54 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $434.13 |
| 10-31 07:54 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.01 |
| 10-30 06:31 | Will the Sacramento Kings be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.86 |
| 10-30 06:29 | Will the Sacramento Kings be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion? | SELL | 0.997 | $426.72 |
| 10-30 06:29 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $24.37 |
| 10-30 06:29 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $402.19 |
| 10-30 06:29 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.994 | $22.14 |
| 10-30 06:28 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $200.00 |