0x1decc3951f294407a3e1c5fc6f277b7430de0f87
- Realised P&L
- $282.97
- Volume
- $29.7k
- Markets traded
- 276
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded276
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.00at 0.120Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
- +$24.68at 0.649Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
- +$20.31at 0.797Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
- +$19.34at 0.796Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
- +$16.92at 0.822Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 21:14 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat? | BUY | 0.9399999999 | $160.79 |
| 09-14 16:44 | Will the Democratic Party win the IN-04 House seat? | BUY | 0.95 | $160.80 |
| 09-13 17:46 | Will the Republican Party win the KY-01 House seat? | SELL | 0.9513603604 | $79.20 |
| 09-12 18:42 | Will the Democratic Party win the MO-07 House seat? | BUY | 0.95 | $160.78 |
| 09-12 17:59 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $127.40 |
| 09-12 02:48 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9571698331 | $165.75 |
| 09-08 13:15 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999998 | $159.32 |
| 09-05 05:31 | Will New People (NL) win between 75 and 84 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.974 | $77.92 |
| 09-05 03:32 | Will the Democratic Party win the TN-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.95 | $158.98 |
| 09-04 16:15 | Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 09-02 14:03 | Will the Republican Party win the GA-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.94 | $158.90 |
| 09-02 10:14 | Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat? | BUY | 0.9399999998 | $158.92 |
| 09-02 09:55 | Will the Democratic Party win the KS-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.95 | $158.93 |
| 09-02 09:31 | Will New People (NL) win between 75 and 84 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.9 | $72.00 |
| 09-01 21:20 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.975 | $50.86 |