PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x1decc3951f294407a3e1c5fc6f277b7430de0f87

Realised P&L
$282.97
Volume
$29.7k
Markets traded
276
Open portfolio
$3.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded276
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat? · Yes0.8980.925$166.12+$4.75
Will the Republican Party win the OR-03 House seat? · No0.9400.969$163.80+$4.82
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-07 House seat? · No0.9500.961$162.64+$1.86
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat? · No0.9400.945$161.65+$0.86
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-04 House seat? · No0.9500.945$159.95$0.85
Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat? · No0.9420.957$158.57+$2.49
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-02 House seat? · No0.9500.945$158.14$0.84
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-01 House seat? · No0.9500.945$158.09$0.84
Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat? · Yes0.9400.935$158.07$0.85
Will the Republican Party win the GA-08 House seat? · Yes0.9400.935$158.05$0.85
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? · No0.8700.945$156.80+$12.44
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat? · Yes0.6200.685$135.54+$12.91
Will Don Woodstock win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election? · No0.9410.955$135.42+$1.98
Will the Republican Party win the NY-08 House seat? · No0.9440.966$112.04+$2.47
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · No0.8500.890$111.22+$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 21:14Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?BUY0.9399999999$160.79
09-14 16:44Will the Democratic Party win the IN-04 House seat?BUY0.95$160.80
09-13 17:46Will the Republican Party win the KY-01 House seat?SELL0.9513603604$79.20
09-12 18:42Will the Democratic Party win the MO-07 House seat?BUY0.95$160.78
09-12 17:59Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?SELL0.95$127.40
09-12 02:48Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?SELL0.9571698331$165.75
09-08 13:15Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9199999998$159.32
09-05 05:31Will New People (NL) win between 75 and 84 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?SELL0.974$77.92
09-05 03:32Will the Democratic Party win the TN-02 House seat?BUY0.95$158.98
09-04 16:15Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?BUY0.75$3.75
09-02 14:03Will the Republican Party win the GA-08 House seat?BUY0.94$158.90
09-02 10:14Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?BUY0.9399999998$158.92
09-02 09:55Will the Democratic Party win the KS-01 House seat?BUY0.95$158.93
09-02 09:31Will New People (NL) win between 75 and 84 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?BUY0.9$72.00
09-01 21:20Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?BUY0.975$50.86