MMatt
0x1ddddfdefa2d0a2e9d9d801eefe4698ea47f372d
- Realised P&L
- $-7.3k
- Volume
- $925.3k
- Markets traded
- 242
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded242
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.864 | 0.933 | $452.97 | +$33.39 |
| Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.930 | 0.948 | $199.08 | +$3.78 |
| Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.740 | $177.60 | −$24.00 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.725 | $145.00 | +$19.00 |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.855 | $138.21 | +$12.12 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.969 | $121.06 | +$14.81 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · No | 0.757 | 0.955 | $105.04 | +$21.73 |
| Ostium FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.918 | 0.940 | $50.55 | +$1.16 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.285 | $34.20 | −$16.20 |
| Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.610 | 0.465 | $27.90 | −$8.70 |
| Spurs vs. Thunder · Thunder | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.46 |
| Spread: Spurs (-7.5) · Spurs | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.14 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.578Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
- +$1.9kat 0.999Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
- +$1.5kat 0.350Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
- +$1.0kat 0.442Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars
- +$582.33at 0.100Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 00:42 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.2749746375 | $219.98 |
| 10-08 14:29 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.9900298923 | $1.76 |
| 10-05 15:27 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $119.45 |
| 10-03 18:53 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $19.42 |
| 10-03 18:53 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9683134328 | $64.88 |
| 10-01 12:23 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.907 | $19.05 |
| 10-01 12:23 | Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.93 | $195.30 |
| 09-30 14:15 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9877360606 | $67.85 |
| 09-30 14:14 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $111.80 |
| 09-29 12:55 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9872118551 | $8.99 |
| 09-25 13:25 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9481125347 | $133.20 |
| 09-24 13:19 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.101 | $5.05 |
| 09-24 13:17 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.9372156863 | $47.80 |
| 09-23 13:36 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $135.85 |
| 09-19 00:08 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $50.40 |