MMatt
0x1ddddfdefa2d0a2e9d9d801eefe4698ea47f372d
- Realised P&L
- $-6.8k
- Volume
- $927.5k
- Markets traded
- 234
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded234
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethos launch a token by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.895 | $366.82 | −$2.05 |
| Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.791 | 0.790 | $339.68 | −$0.30 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.750 | $150.00 | +$24.00 |
| Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.555 | $133.20 | −$68.40 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.953 | $119.06 | +$12.81 |
| Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.925 | 0.885 | $108.77 | −$4.89 |
| Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.355 | $85.20 | −$13.20 |
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.320 | $80.00 | −$89.93 |
| Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.125 | $22.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.183 | 0.196 | $9.78 | +$0.63 |
| Spurs vs. Thunder · Thunder | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.46 |
| Spread: Spurs (-7.5) · Spurs | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.14 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.3kat 0.620Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans
- +$8.3kat 0.495Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars
- +$3.0kat 0.578Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
- +$1.9kat 0.999Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
- +$1.5kat 0.350Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 14:01 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $34.31 |
| 09-09 12:28 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.17 | $85.00 |
| 09-08 10:02 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $106.25 |
| 09-08 10:00 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.8975606781 | $73.59 |
| 09-06 23:50 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.893442623 | $54.50 |
| 09-04 14:42 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.9065404971 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 14:41 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9559807229 | $79.35 |
| 09-04 14:41 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $368.87 |
| 09-04 14:39 | Will Ethos launch a token by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.7764909083 | $349.31 |
| 08-28 16:19 | Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6795612173 | $96.02 |
| 08-28 16:17 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.63 | $126.00 |
| 06-08 14:47 | Spurs vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.47 | $37.60 |
| 06-08 14:47 | Spread: Spurs (-7.5) | BUY | 0.28 | $5.14 |
| 06-04 21:32 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.67 | $33.50 |
| 05-29 16:13 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.58 | $47.46 |