0x1db14c1d00e60979fa3f05218c872c77041a7a57
- Realised P&L
- $-574.07
- Volume
- $67.5k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $45.23
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.915 | $36.60 | +$0.20 |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.953 | $3.81 | +$0.05 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.060 | $2.42 | −$0.38 |
| Will Trump resign before 2027? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.036 | $2.38 | −$1.68 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$107.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.40at 0.200Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 29?
- +$6.00at 0.500Will Trump say "Islamic Revolutionary Guard" or "Iranian Revolutionary Guard" this week? (March 15)
- +$0.50at 0.500Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" this week? (March 15)
- +$0.50at 0.973Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 3?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-25 22:05 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.02864 | $6.59 |
| 03-24 23:14 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.26 | $59.80 |
| 03-24 12:04 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $73.99 |
| 03-24 12:03 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.62 | $142.60 |
| 03-24 12:00 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $147.20 |
| 03-24 11:59 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.6212078261 | $142.88 |
| 03-24 11:59 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $147.20 |
| 03-24 11:59 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.62 | $142.60 |
| 03-24 11:59 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $147.20 |
| 03-24 11:59 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.62 | $142.60 |
| 03-24 11:52 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $9.78 |
| 03-24 11:52 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.61 | $140.30 |
| 03-24 11:52 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $144.90 |
| 03-24 11:51 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.61 | $140.30 |
| 03-24 11:51 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $144.90 |