claudelover
0x1d9af51a80eb87f5648fe32bf58c036628ba9a46
- Realised P&L
- $540.71
- Volume
- $367.1k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $6.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.025 | $3.3k | +$419.16 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.018 | $1.6k | +$763.31 |
| Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.915 | 0.910 | $519.78 | −$3.15 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.547 | 0.305 | $457.49 | −$363.74 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? · Yes | 0.995 | 0.980 | $243.02 | −$3.62 |
| Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.018 | $4.05 | −$172.00 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$580.00at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$47.34at 0.905Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
- +$16.35at 0.988Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
- +$0.77at 0.983Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 01:12 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $53.40 |
| 10-26 00:22 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $36.80 |
| 10-26 00:22 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $36.80 |
| 10-26 00:18 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $37.20 |
| 10-26 00:02 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $89.17 |
| 10-25 23:51 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $184.14 |
| 10-25 23:51 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 10-25 23:50 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.983 | $44.23 |
| 10-25 23:49 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9167813953 | $39.42 |
| 10-25 23:42 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? | BUY | 0.9946048875 | $246.64 |
| 05-29 16:28 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.91 | $182.00 |
| 05-10 18:44 | Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | BUY | 0.76 | $176.05 |
| 04-10 23:31 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? | BUY | 0.001 | $86.49 |
| 04-10 23:30 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.4k |
| 04-10 23:28 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.5k |