kiaragriffin
0x1d8a8333b8d3f535b936910235be334b337b07dc
- Realised P&L
- $-35.99
- Volume
- $11.7k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $30.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Burnley FC win on 2026-10-24? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $21.42 | −$0.18 |
| Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · No | 0.665 | 0.430 | $8.66 | −$4.74 |
| Set Handicap: Jiri Lehecka (-1.5) vs Zizou Bergs (+1.5) · Jiri Lehecka | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.40 |
| Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Jan-Lennard Struff (+1.5) · Daniil Medvedev | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.46 |
| Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 48.5 · Under | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.71at 0.330Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$23.84at 0.550Ripple above $2.40 on January 17?
- +$12.12at 0.680OpenSea airdrop before April?
- +$5.04at 0.999Will Solana dip to $100 in July?
- +$4.49at 0.730Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 07:24 | Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | BUY | 0.6650370282 | $13.40 |
| 10-18 07:10 | Will Burnley FC win on 2026-10-24? | BUY | 0.5899999918 | $21.60 |
| 01-31 13:33 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.53 |
| 01-30 14:44 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9979999899 | $13.44 |
| 01-30 14:07 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | BUY | 0.997999994 | $5.98 |
| 01-30 12:59 | Will Opendoor reach $10.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.19 |
| 01-30 12:00 | Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $42.75 |
| 12-30 09:13 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.89 |
| 12-30 02:00 | Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.07 |
| 12-30 01:17 | Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.50 |
| 12-30 00:56 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? | BUY | 0.9989999951 | $13.92 |
| 12-29 21:43 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $46.03 |
| 10-31 15:46 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.85 |
| 10-31 15:39 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.60 |
| 10-31 15:24 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $24.78 |