0x1D81a7927a5F45d7E373D4c7be5A6750fAf30961-1770936098475
0x1d81a7927a5f45d7e373d4c7be5a6750faf30961
- Realised P&L
- $127.32
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 394
- Open portfolio
- $6.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded394
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Rogers die in Avengers: Doomsday? · No | 0.420 | 0.570 | $6.78 | +$1.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$82.41at 0.051Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?
- +$18.68at 0.190Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26?
- +$13.00at 0.250Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21?
- +$12.74at 0.250Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?
- +$12.73at 0.250Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 05:56 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $9.05 |
| 07-14 13:40 | Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? | SELL | 0.999 | $13.87 |
| 06-04 16:38 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.90 |
| 06-04 06:50 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? | SELL | 0.993 | $10.03 |
| 06-03 08:27 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.932 | $11.79 |
| 06-02 17:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.34 |
| 06-02 17:31 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.64 |
| 06-02 08:39 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.02 |
| 05-27 21:04 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 27? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.54 |
| 05-24 11:04 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? | SELL | 0.991 | $9.09 |
| 04-20 02:24 | Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19? | SELL | 0.994 | $9.55 |
| 04-07 21:14 | Valorant: ALTERNATE aTTaX vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.01 | $0.34 |
| 04-07 13:12 | Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | SELL | 0.901 | $12.51 |
| 04-05 19:52 | Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | SELL | 0.93 | $12.23 |
| 04-01 13:03 | Valorant: Insomnia vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2 | SELL | 0.99 | $13.94 |