maxkoud
0x1d7006e2d4fb482ca9d0f35e51c59b806eabec5b
- Realised P&L
- $-0.67
- Volume
- $22.9k
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $76.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.372 | 0.355 | $35.46 | −$1.70 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.028 | $27.50 | −$39.49 |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.642 | 0.445 | $13.35 | −$5.90 |
| Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.00 |
| Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$200.00at 0.500Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?
- +$200.00at 0.500Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?
- +$158.00at 0.247Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$100.00at 0.500Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?
- +$100.00at 0.500Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 08:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? | BUY | 0.45 | $20.72 |
| 04-21 17:38 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 04-21 16:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $190.00 |
| 04-20 18:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? | BUY | 0.44 | $12.14 |
| 04-17 22:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? | SELL | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 04-17 12:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? | BUY | 0.47 | $21.71 |
| 04-17 11:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? | SELL | 0.62 | $15.50 |
| 04-17 09:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? | BUY | 0.52 | $48.41 |
| 04-16 17:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? | BUY | 0.54 | $25.21 |
| 04-15 17:53 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 04-15 15:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? | BUY | 0.42 | $19.25 |
| 04-15 07:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.97 |
| 04-15 07:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? | BUY | 0.46 | $12.73 |
| 04-14 12:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? | SELL | 0.32 | $11.12 |
| 04-13 20:10 | MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.87 | $9.37 |