0x1d69F19Cd1c480432A161abb82aa050aCdEa8f9E-1728282317880
0x1d69f19cd1c480432a161abb82aa050acdea8f9e
- Realised P&L
- $238.98
- Volume
- $55.4k
- Markets traded
- 103
- Open portfolio
- $100.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded103
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$306.83at 0.437India military action against Pakistan before June?
- +$223.69at 0.544Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$221.02at 0.538Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
- +$211.41at 0.735Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?
- +$134.69at 0.590Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-24 10:59 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | BUY | 0.074 | $1.11 |
| 04-07 12:09 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.02 |
| 04-02 15:58 | Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad | BUY | 0.6299999483 | $9.78 |
| 03-02 20:09 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.6199999942 | $15.00 |
| 02-28 12:26 | Will Petr Yan fight Song Yadong next? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 02-28 12:26 | Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.07 |
| 02-02 17:01 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.64 |
| 02-02 16:59 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | BUY | 0.39 | $78.00 |
| 02-02 16:59 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | BUY | 0.3418378218 | $11.55 |
| 02-02 16:59 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.88 |
| 02-01 05:08 | Will India join the Board of Peace? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.10 |
| 01-31 19:19 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.30 |
| 01-26 15:07 | Will India join the Board of Peace? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 01-25 11:09 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.28 | $28.00 |
| 01-23 18:43 | Will the US strike Somalia next? | BUY | 0.017 | $1.02 |