bigfunky
0x1d5e0de9cef9c2df5b24ae3ca7828a749cbe64dd
- Realised P&L
- $866.38
- Volume
- $1.28M
- Markets traded
- 512
- Open portfolio
- $4.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded512
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.9kat 0.268Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$2.8kat 0.031No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
- +$2.4kat 0.260Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$1.4kat 0.631US military action against Iran before July?
- +$1.3kat 0.363Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 17:00 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 09-02 16:58 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $41.03 |
| 09-02 16:58 | Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $41.83 |
| 09-02 16:58 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 09-02 16:56 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $168.00 |
| 05-09 15:30 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | SELL | 0.893 | $10.84 |
| 04-29 22:58 | Canadiens vs. Lightning | SELL | 0.41 | $410.00 |
| 04-29 20:09 | Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 04-29 20:08 | Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.9971844338 | $135.17 |
| 04-29 20:07 | Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.89 |
| 04-29 20:06 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.90 |
| 04-29 20:06 | Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 04-06 15:17 | Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.819 | $14.74 |
| 03-11 05:15 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.4 | $25.46 |
| 03-09 21:47 | Will Trump say "Israel" 3+ times during Monday press conference? | SELL | 0.83 | $49.80 |