0x1d4EbE8DB2d43EC50C2c477574F2a16430c681dE-1769074537682
0x1d4ebe8db2d43ec50c2c477574f2a16430c681de
- Realised P&L
- $44.46
- Volume
- $340.17
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $3.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.162 | $1.94 | −$1.06 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.155 | $1.66 | −$4.34 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.28at 0.160Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$7.20at 0.410Will Trump say "Peace" 20+ times during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement?
- +$-10.00at 0.282Will Trump say "Palestine" during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement?
- +$-11.00at 0.340Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-01 02:17 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.995 | $93.28 |
| 01-22 15:48 | Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.00 |
| 01-22 15:46 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.16 | $15.00 |
| 01-22 10:21 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 01-22 10:14 | Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999963 | $6.00 |
| 01-22 10:10 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | BUY | 0.3399999815 | $11.00 |
| 01-22 10:09 | Will Trump say "Peace" 20+ times during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 01-22 10:06 | Will Trump say "Palestine" during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement? | BUY | 0.2824445898 | $10.00 |