0x1d4c0F98004368e677a46f0691d5f0B868869d4d-1769612206456
0x1d4c0f98004368e677a46f0691d5f0b868869d4d
- Realised P&L
- $-7.96
- Volume
- $932.53
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $136.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.125 | $99.34 | +$9.34 |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.957 | $23.96 | +$1.67 |
| Will the next elected US president be a woman? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.240 | $13.33 | +$3.33 |
| Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.298 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.89at 0.720Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$0.33at 0.756Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 22:12 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1319999998 | $80.00 |
| 07-19 21:12 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7469998588 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 06:44 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0529999951 | $10.00 |
| 06-25 06:43 | Will the next elected US president be a woman? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 04-23 19:05 | Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? | BUY | 0.8899999984 | $22.29 |
| 04-21 06:57 | Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999847 | $11.48 |
| 04-11 10:28 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.7199999539 | $10.00 |