belgrave
0x1d3ddee184835813822669d23ab244543b33aa1a
- Realised P&L
- $624.18
- Volume
- $131.0k
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $622.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $60 | 0.710 | 0.780 | $400.92 | +$35.98 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · No | 0.820 | 1.000 | $150.00 | +$27.00 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 · Yes | 0.300 | 0.130 | $67.73 | −$88.57 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.860 | $4.30 | −$0.10 |
| Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$737.66at 0.230Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5
- +$717.34at 0.110San Diego Toreros vs. Pepperdine Waves
- +$513.00at 0.230Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
- +$288.80at 0.270Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?
- +$254.88at 0.540Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 09:49 | Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $17.00 |
| 04-12 22:14 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000? | SELL | 0.89 | $425.42 |
| 04-11 18:44 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000? | SELL | 0.86 | $237.36 |
| 04-11 09:21 | Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30? | SELL | 0.84 | $152.04 |
| 04-11 09:21 | Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30? | SELL | 0.84 | $293.16 |
| 04-11 03:42 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000? | BUY | 0.8 | $603.20 |
| 04-11 01:00 | Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $453.60 |
| 04-09 22:42 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.57 | $148.20 |
| 04-09 13:52 | Canada recession before 2027? | SELL | 0.62 | $334.80 |
| 04-09 12:08 | Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | SELL | 0.05 | $50.60 |
| 04-08 08:42 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.51 | $132.60 |
| 04-08 08:07 | Canada recession before 2027? | BUY | 0.62 | $372.00 |
| 04-08 05:15 | Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.15 | $151.80 |
| 03-26 02:52 | Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.76 | $234.08 |
| 03-26 02:51 | Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.76 | $130.72 |